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No More Floppy or CD ROM drives


Theory and warning advisory:
The future will consist of memory card and USB storage sized and shaped drives. USB drives currently cost about $40-$50 per 500MB* of data storage. But in the future, these little storage devices will be about $4-$10 per 500MB of data. This will be the same price as a CD-ROM rewritable disk. CD-RW's will be considered junk, even if they are only 20 cents each.
DVD's are not a solution for the future. DVD's take in all the problems of CD-ROM'S. CD's get scratched extremely easily, are not protected from fingerprints, they look ugly, they are clunky and big (compared to a USB style drive.). DVD's and CD's also take extremely high wattage to run their motors, considering the future will involve low wattage PC's and laptops.
The fact that CD's and DVD's have to spin up just to get read should send no-no signals to you. Anything that has to spin up has latency. CD's are a relatively heavy item (in comparison to a hard drive magnetic disk), so the latency, spin time, noise, and general clunkiness of the whole situation means they are not a smart data storage system. Today's fast paced world should not put up with latency. CD's and DVD's are junk. They are terrible methods of storing data.
This is not to say that USB is the future. There may be other protocols faster or better than firewire/USB. But the size and shapes of our storage disks will be of the USB drive shape. People will not use DVD's or CD-ROM's in the future, if they are intelligent. This is going to be scary for all the people who keep investing in DVD player's VCR's etc.

No longer will we be using clunky CD's, DVD's, or Tapes/cassettes. If you are considering purchasing a DVD drive or a DVD player, or a pack of CD-RW's, consider that they will be obsolete very soon. They are no good in the near future. They are clunky and terrible methods of storing data.


When you walk into a music store to purchase an album, it will be on a little drive the size of a USB storage device or camera memory card. Same goes for boxed and shrinkwrapped software.
If memory becomes small enough, shipping a 500MB software title in a standard postal letter will be no big deal. Stores will require extra security, due to the size of these items.
Feel free to quote me on this one in 5-10 or 15 years. I guarantee you that CD's and DVD's are a phase - just a junk phase. Don't invest big money in them. Wait and see. (or better yet, if you are a hardware company, take action now). --L505
* Theory first proposed February 2003 while swearing at my CD drive.
* $50/500MB Price note updated August 2005

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